The Creative Investor - Housing Market Problems

Many people have been saying that there is a bubble in the housing market. If there is I think we are very close to the pop. Primarily due to supply and demand.

2.4 million foreclosure on the horizon =more supply

http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2007/real_estate/0704/gallery.paly_the_subprime_blame_game/index.html
This may cause the ball to just start rolling, with many borrower with over 80% financing, they may be stuck due to depreciation in there house, and be forced to foreclose or stay. = more supply

new home builders still building= more supply
lenders going out of business and guideline changes for getting a loan has change so significantly, 10-25% of those that could buy, now cant= less demand

http://money.cnn.com/2007/04/05/real_estate/rates.moneymag/index.htm?postversion=2007040516
Interest rates should move

up soon. They have been the lowest they ever have been for four years, Greenspan has received some blame for making them too low, a new president means new economic policy. Higher rates less people can afford= less demand

http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms30.htm
Even if rates do not go up, profit margins will be increased by lenders, due to buy backs and correcting themselves from the recent loan free for all = less demand.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070409/american_home_mortgage_out_of_the_gate.html?.v=2

www.lenderimplode.com
These factors add up to a possible scary scenario. Hope this does not mean anything. Must See graph http://www.speculativebubble.com/images/homevalues1.gif

-Loan Officer/ Realator in Sacramento CA.

-Loan Officer/ REALTOR in Sacramento CA.