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Housing Bubble - Will it burst?

Tuesday, August 17, 2004 @ 08:00 AM EDT Printer Friendly Page  Printer Friendly Page
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Contributed by: John Michael

John Michael Properties

Read more archived articles about Economy - Bad

Please forgive my sarcasm on the "Real Estate Bubble"

Since the post depression era real estate has remained stable!

So Is it full speed ahead?

Are we headed for a crash?

The housing bubble may burst!
It might inflate!
Rates might skyrocket!
Housing prices may plummet!

Two-thirds of Americans own their homes!

American's spend just under 40% of their income on housing and housing related expenses!

Approach home buying with the attitude of a savvy stock investor. We've long preached the
 
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benefits of buy-and-hold investing. The same approach translates well to the home-buying market.

The Office of Federal Housing Oversight recently released its house price data for the first quarter of 2004. U.S. home prices rose 7.7% over the first quarter of 2003.

The median price for an existing home rose to $170,000 in 2003, up 15 percent from just two years earlier. Yet housing actually grew more affordable during that period as the typical mortgage rate fell to 5.74 percent from over 7 percent. The average monthly payment on a median-priced home was 17.8 percent of median family income in 2003, down from 18.4 percent in 2001, according to the National Association of Realtors.

“Our own sense is there will be a slowing of price appreciation but no widespread price corrections,” said Nicolas Retsinas, director of Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies.

A government report issued last month startled many analysts, showing that home prices rose in the fourth quarter at an annualized rate of more than 14 percent, the biggest one-quarter jump in nearly 25 years.

David Seiders, chief economist for the National Association of HomeBuilders, predicts sales will drop only 2 percent this year from last year’s 7.2 million, which was a third straight record year.

How exactly should you play this one?

I say on your mark. Get set. Buy, sell, hold, build, borrow, or refinance.

I have been dealing with real estate for a long time and I use a simply approach in good times and bad times "KNOW YOUR MARKET"




Note: John Michael is the author of many guides that can help you become more successful as an investor. See http://www.thecreativeinvestor.com/ChanPart-JohnMichael.html


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Housing Bubble - Will it burst?

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Logged In members can moderate all comments.
Boom? Bust? Who cares? (Score: 2)
by loon on Sunday, August 22, 2004 @ 02:21 PM EDT

Yes, of course. Opportunity is always there. I've adopted as my creed the words I heard from an RE investor who picked me up in his Corvette years ago while I was hitchhiking across Texas. He told me "you buy from people who really need to sell, and you sell to people who really want to buy. And there will always be plenty of both."[ No Comments Allowed for Anonymous, please register ]




Re: Housing Bubble - Will it burst? (Score: 1)
by JohnMichael on Tuesday, August 24, 2004 @ 05:32 PM EDT

1. Price Bubbles generally occur in the expensive, supply-constrained markets, such as California and the Northeast. Builders in these markets can't meet demand, so surges in demand tend to result in years of rapid price acceleration. The price acceleration often becomes too rapid because home buyers and investors incorrectly *****ume that what happened last year will happen in perpetuity. Price bubbles can be fueled by declining mortgage rates, which is what The Wall Street Journal and others have been warning about for years.

2. Supply Bubbles generally occur in the inexpensive, supply-plentiful markets, such as Arizona, Atlanta and parts of Texas. In the past, builders in these markets have grown their businesses too fast during strong economic times, eventually resulting in oversupply.

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  • Re: Housing Bubble - Will it burst? by Lufos on Wednesday, August 25, 2004 @ 01:28 AM EDT



  • REAL ESTATE Is the Housing Boom Over? (Score: 0)
    by JohnMichael on Thursday, September 09, 2004 @ 05:15 AM EDT

    REAL ESTATE Is the Housing Boom Over?
    Fortune (subscription) - USA
    Maybe this is the most ominous sign of trouble ahead in the real estate
    market: The Kiwanians have gotten into condos. When real ...
    http://www.fortune.com/fortune/investing/articles/0,15114,693864,00.html
    [ No Comments Allowed for Anonymous, please register ]




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